A Mechanism for Eliciting Sets of Priors
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper describes a direct revelation mechanism for eliciting (a) decision makers’ sets of subjective prior probabilities in the model of Knightian uncertainty and (b) decision makers’ introspective beliefs about the likelihoods of their prior beliefs. The mechanism consists of two interlocking ingredients: scheme designed to reveal the range of priors of any given event and a proper scoring rule designed to reveal the decision maker’s beliefs about likelihoods of the priors within the range.
منابع مشابه
Bayesian Sample size Determination for Longitudinal Studies with Continuous Response using Marginal Models
Introduction Longitudinal study designs are common in a lot of scientific researches, especially in medical, social and economic sciences. The reason is that longitudinal studies allow researchers to measure changes of each individual over time and often have higher statistical power than cross-sectional studies. Choosing an appropriate sample size is a crucial step in a successful study. A st...
متن کاملA Mechanism for the Elicitation of Second-Order Belief and Subjective Information Structure
This paper describes a direct revelation mechanism for eliciting (a) Decision makers’ range of subjective priors under Knightian uncertainty and their second-order introspective belief and (b) Bayesian decision makers’ range of posteriors and their subjective information
متن کاملA Mechanism for Eliciting Second-Order Beliefs and the Inclination to Choose
This paper describes a direct revelation mechanism for eliciting decision makers’ introspective beliefs on sets of subjective prior or posterior probabilities. The proposed scheme constitutes a revealedpreference procedure for measuring the inclination of decision makers to choose one alternative over another modeled by Minardi and Savochkin (2015).
متن کاملInteractive Effect of Pragmatic Eliciting Tasks on EFL Pre-intermediate Learners' Speaking Proficiency
The present study investigated the effect of pragmatic eliciting tasks on EFL pre-intermediate learners speaking proficiency. Thus this study aimed at comparing the English language learners who practiced pragmatic eliciting tasks and the ones who used traditional speaking activities such as questions and answers, discussion, etc. In doing so, 40 learners out of 80 were selected through Oxford ...
متن کاملA discussion on learning and prior ignorance for sets of priors in the one-parameter exponential family
For a conjugate likelihood-prior model in the one-parameter exponential family of distributions, we show that, by letting the parameters of the conjugate exponential prior vary in suitable sets, it is possible to define a set of conjugate priors M that guarantees prior near-ignorance without producing vacuous inferences. This result is obtained following both a behavioural and a sensitivity ana...
متن کامل